We had three fantastic games Saturday during NFL Wild Card Weekend and the games only get better Sunday. With three games now on each day, it sets up endless opportunities for bettors. So without further ado, let’s take a look at our top NFL Wild Card parlay prediction for Sunday’s slate.

Using data, trends and insight from expert handicappers, OddsChecker provides NFL picks on all the key betting markets for all the key games. Whether you're looking for against the spread picks, prop bets or even fantasy advice we will have you covered. A parlay bet is a form of sports wagering where a single bet combines together two or more individual wagers up to a total of 12 picks and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together for the bet to cash.

NFL Wild Card Sunday parlay picks and predictions

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 9:25 a.m. ET.

Leg 1: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+140)

The Titans enter this game as 3-point home underdogs. That doesn’t make a ton of sense considering Tennessee has already beaten Baltimore this season. While it’s true the Titans have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Ravens aren’t the type of team that can expose them in that area.

This is a game in which both teams are going to want to run the ball early and often, but the game will ultimately be decided by which quarterback plays better. Given their recent playoff history, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill inspires more confidence, especially with his arsenal of weapons at receiver.

The Titans aren’t a bad bet on the spread (+3, -105), but the value is here on the money line. Tennesee has a great chance to win this game at home and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Also see:Ravens at Titans odds, picks and prediction

Leg 2: Chicago Bears +11 (-110) at New Orleans Saints

It’s hard to trust Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky much in a playoff game, but the recent history of Saints QB Drew Brees isn’t much better. New Orleans has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but their quarterback play over the last month has been less than ideal.

The Bears likely won’t win this game, but as double-digit underdogs on the road with no fans? That seems like a little bit too much. We know Chicago has a great defense and should make things difficult for Brees and Saints head coach Sean Payton.

If the Bears’ offense can score into the low-20s, they should have no problem covering this spread. There is also some backdoor cover potential here for the Bears as they could easily score late and get this within 10 in the final minutes.

Also see:Bears at Saints odds, picks and prediction

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Leg 3: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-105)

Despite the Browns being without their head coach and several key players such as OL Joel Bitonio, CB Denzel Ward and DE Olivier Vernon, the Steelers are just 6.5 point favorites in this game. In the first meeting of the season, Pittsburgh dominated from the opening whistle. That game was never a contest and Cleveland was much healthier than they are entering this Wild Card matchup.

Pittsburgh’s defense should dominate in this game and it’s hard to envision Cleveland scoring more than 17 points. For that reason, the Steelers should cover with ease as they will face a defense that can’t stop opposing quarterbacks at all.

Also see:Browns at Steelers odds, picks and prediction

WILD CARD PARLAY Bet $100 to earn a profit of $694.55

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A parlay, accumulator (or acca), combo bet or multi is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately, since the difficulty of hitting all of them is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or 'pushes', the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly.

Odds and payout[edit]

Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the 'true' odds. For instance, a common 2-team NFL parlay based entirely on the spread generally has a payout of 2.6:1.^{[citation needed]} In reality however, if one assumes that each single game bet is 50/50, the true payout should instead be 3:1 (10% expected value for the house). A house may average 20-30% profit on spread parlays compared to perhaps 4.5% profit on individual sports mix parlay bets.

Aside from 'spread' parlays, another way to parlay is to bet on two or more teams simply winning straight up. In order to calculate the payout of this parlay, one must multiply out the payout for all games. For example, if 3 teams are -385 favorites, a successful parlay on all 3 teams winning would pay out at a ratio of approximately 1/1. This is because (385/485)^3 is approximately 50%.

Examples[edit]

Typical payouts for up to 10 team parlay bet[edit]

The following is an example of a traditional Las Vegas Parlay Card at William Hill Sports Book, which shows the typical payouts for an up to 10 team parlay bet based on -1.10 prices (amount won is assuming $100 is bet)^{[citation needed]}:

Profitability of parlays in sports betting[edit]

Many gamblers have mixed feelings as to whether or not parlays are a wise play. The best way to analyze if they are profitable in the long term is by calculating the expected value. The formula for expected value is: E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk . Since the probability of all possible events will add up to 1 this can also be looked at as the weighted average of the event. The table below represents odds.^{[citation needed]}

Column 1 = number of individual bets in the parlay

Parlay Cards Football

Column 2 = correct odds of winning with 50% chance of winning each individual bet

Column 3 = odds payout of parlay at the sportsbook

Column 4 = correct odds of winning parlay with 55% chance of winning each individual bet

Parlay Card Calculator

Parlay Cards De

The table illustrates that if a 55% chance of winning each individual bet were achievable, parlays would be profitable in the long term. Compare the expected value you receive on an individual bet at a typical price of -110 with a 55% chance of winning: ((100/110+1)*.55)-1 = .05 (exactly 5 cents won for every dollar bet on average), multiplied by 11 = .55, to the expected return on the 11 game parlay ((1234/717.8)-1) = .719 (72 cents won for every dollar bet on average). In this case a parlay has a much higher expected value than individual bets with greatly increased variance in outcomes.

See also[edit]